Investment Thesis: Technology continues to be the primary driver of economic growth and innovation. We aim to capitalize on this growth by investing in leading technology-focused ETFs while using PUT options to actively manage and mitigate risk.

Objective:

Our objective is to rank among the 15% of investment managers who outperform the S&P 500 after 10 years, and we believe this strategy provides the strongest foundation and likelihood to achieve that goal. (page last updated 10/24/2025)

Overview:

The investment thesis for trading technology focused ETFs is based on a tactical/strategic strategy that seeks to capitalize on the strong growth and momentum of the tech sector while dynamically managing leverage and risk. The approach uses a rules-based framework that adjusts exposure between non leveraged and leveraged tech ETFs depending on market conditions, volatility levels, and trend strength. In bullish market regimes, where the Nasdaq-100 trades above key moving averages and volatility remains moderate, the strategy favors leveraged exposure to amplify returns and benefit from compounding during sustained uptrends. When markets turn neutral or volatile, exposure is reduced or managed more with PUTs to preserve capital and minimize drawdowns. The rationale behind this approach is that the Nasdaq-100, driven by innovation and secular growth in technology and communication sectors, tends to outperform broader markets over time, providing a structural advantage to leveraged strategies when managed prudently. By incorporating trend analysis, volatility filters, and disciplined risk management, the strategy aims to outperform SPY, delivering higher risk-adjusted returns while protecting against large drawdowns that typically erode leveraged ETF performance in choppy markets. If there is a real growth scare or downturn in the US economy we have our PUTs in place to mitigate downside risk and we have the option of going risk off or into sectors/strategies where growth is less of a driving factor.

Macro Drivers:

Interest Rate Cuts: We are currently in a rate cut cycle. Tech companies often trade on future growth expectations and the lower rates will increase the present value of the future earnings.

GDP/Economic Output: GDP is growing at a rate of 3.8%

Yield Curve: The yield curve is currently normal and upward sloping.

Corporate Earnings: Earnings in technology has been robust. YOY earnings growth in tech has a rate of 13.2% and leads all sectors in the S&P.

Corporate Investment: Many of the companies in the tech sector are spending huge on AI. The hope is this spending will lead towards more productivity, more growth, and better earnings.

Fiscal Policy & Government Spending: The Big Beautiful Bill includes provisions for increased defense spending with allocations for military and artificial intelligence. Quantitative tightening is expected to stop soon.

Buying In/Entry Points

We employ a comprehensive approach that integrates fundamental and technical analysis, strategic asset allocation, and thematic investing, all within the framework of technology investing. This multifaceted strategy is designed to effectively manage risk while attempting to drive positive alpha. We try to follow the saying: “Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful”. We look for strong long term buying opportunities like 2000-2002, 2008, 2011, 2015, 2018, 2020, 2022, and 2025. These big corrections and down turns give our firm the chance to buy the market at bargain prices.

We utilize a variety of strategies to effectively time market entries, including:

1) Moving Average Crossover Strategy: This approach helps identify potential buy and sell signals based on the relationships between short-term and long-term moving averages.

2) Dollar-Cost Averaging: We gradually build positions over several weeks or months to mitigate the impact of market volatility and reduce the risk of poor timing.

3) Experience: Our team's expertise in market trends and behavior guides our decision-making process.

Risk Management Approach

We employ a comprehensive range of strategies and inversely correlated assets to manage equity risk effectively. These include the use of options, fixed-income securities, commodities, stress testing, scenario analysis and risk modeling. This diverse approach allows us to manage client portfolios with both safety and efficiency, adapting to changing market conditions while aligning with client goals. PUT options are a major part of our strategy, when the market crashes and it will, we will be protected by our risk management approach.

Income Generation

We employ a variety of techniques and strategies to generate income for your portfolio. These include writing covered calls and writing credit spreads for your portfolio. These income generating strategies boost your returns and cut back on the cost of protection which is the PUTs.